Daniel R. DePetris: The Political Docket

Iran Accepts Nuclear Deal….JUST KIDDING, DON’T BELIEVE IT!!!

Posted in Iran by Dan on February 5, 2010

As if the Iranian nuclear stalemate could not get any more confusing, reports are suggesting that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is once again open to a deal with the west.  Or, to take his own words into consideration, Iran has “no problem” in sending some of its enriched uranium overseas in exchange for higher-grade nuclear fuel.

What a turnaround by the Iranian Government!  Days ago, Tehran was churning up uranium just as it continued to spit right in the face of the United Nations.  The situation became so bleak that U.S. State officials spoke of the need to adopt a new approach to the Iranian nuclear program (and when I say new approach, I mean targeted sanctions).  The U.S. Congress even “upt-the-ante” by announcing bipartisan support for a bill that would sanction any company who worked with Iran.

With Ahmadinejad’s power threatened by a harsh American response, it appears that he has decided to magically cave-in to western demands and accept the U.N. nuclear deal on its face.  Sounds great.  Unfortunately, the very idea of Iranian compliance is comical.

I hate to add some realism to the story, but there is no way that President Ahmadinejad is sincere about a new nuclear bargain. Iran has been stonewalling the International Atomic Energy Agency (along with the United Nations) for close to five years, and now all of a sudden this same country is willing to export most of its uranium out of the country for 4-5 months? Really? Are we honestly going to believe this?  Ahmadinejad really must think that Americans like us are stupid.

At this point in time, there is no turning back for Tehran on the nuclear issue.  Iranian scientists have done all the leg work themselves and are now a screwdriver short of turning the fuse. After so much success in developing its nuclear program- a program that Iranians of all political affiliations support- Iran would be foolish to succumb to U.S. pressure now.

Heck, Ahmadinejad would be suicidal if he even thought that such a deal was worth the anguish, given the current political environment in Iran. Remember what happened when he agreed “in principle” to the original U.N. nuclear deal in October? He came back to Iran and got lambasted by Moussavi and his Green supporters for handing over the hard work of Iranians to westerners. The criticism was so great that Ahmadinejad was forced to reconsider.

I don’t know how many times I have said this, but it is worth repeating; the nuclear program is much more than a scientific project.  It is now a significant part of Iranian nationalism. And whenever nationalism is involved, getting what you want is exceedingly difficult.

-Daniel R. DePetris

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**Comments courtesy of the Economist**


5 Responses

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  1. Aly-Khan Satchu said, on February 5, 2010 at 6:05 am

    Firstly, I think The Iranian President has a sense of humour. In a parlance, it looks like he is taking the ‘Worm.’ Secondly, he is playing outreach in an environment where he knows he will have Chinese Cover. Thirdly, The Iranians have the Intellectual Capital to do this and have surely crossed the Tipping Point.

    Aly-khan Satchu

  2. john degrande said, on February 5, 2010 at 6:05 am

    I just love reading the Economist and their blatant anti-Iranian agenda… somewhat reminiscent of Nazi propaganda of the 1930s.

  3. vik470 said, on February 5, 2010 at 6:06 am

    I don’t understand why is this article so anti-Iran in the first place. Why is everyone going so paranoid over this issue.

    I think the International Atomic Agency should move forward and take this offer seriously. This is a good sign that Iranians are ready and willing to talk to P5+1 who have been so insulting in their approach.

    US is just being paranoid over this issue, like they need something to keep them in Middle East. Iranians will be commiting suicide by bombing any of the European Countries (for which US is preparing to put up their faulty Missile Defense Shield).

    Iranians have the intellectual capital, and the P5+1 should be recognising that and use it as a tool to include Iran in world issues.

    If US has to use its influence, it should use it on getting the illegal settlements removed and get Gaza freed up. Rather than wasting its tax payers money on Missile Defense Systems.

    I really pity the American people…they need jobs not Missile Defense.

  4. EuReader said, on February 5, 2010 at 5:57 pm

    One can only wish that soon Western politicians will stop this shadow boxing and simply accept that Iran will get nuclear weapons one way or another. India, Pakistan, and North Korea are the examples that show nothing will happen to Iran.

    Besides which, the last approx. 200 years Iran has suffered all sorts of invasions by western powers, not to mention direct attacks by the US, such as the overthrow of an elected government to be replaced by a US supported dictator, as well as killing about 290 civilians when the US shot down an Iranian passenger jet. etc. etc.

    It is no wonder that Iran wants nuclear weapons, and this probably even if it has a democratic government given that it lives in a dangerous neighborhood (heard that one before 😀 )

    The only way this desire for nuclear weapons will change is when even the large owners, the US and Russia agree to hold, say, about 100 each instead of the thousands they have, as well as Israel giving up its weapons and coming under the US protection like Japan has.

  5. Britt said, on February 18, 2010 at 3:41 am

    This is my second visit to your blog. We are starting a new initiative in the same category as this blog. Your blog provided us with important information to work on. You have done a fantastic job.

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